Can Paxton Close the Gap in Amarillo? Past Runoff Results Offer Clues

Ken Paxton/Screenshot via YouTube, Paxton Campaign Ad

With just over a week until Texas voters head to the polls for the May 26 runoff, local results from Potter and Randall counties could offer clues about how U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton might fare in the Texas Panhandle.

In the March 3 primary, Cornyn led Paxton in both counties, taking 48.8 percent to Paxton’s 38 percent in Potter County and 52.9 percent to 33.9 percent in Randall County. While those are solid first-round leads, runoff elections often shift as lower-polling candidates’ voters pick a side or stay home.

Local voting history suggests Paxton has performed well in runoffs here, even when he started from behind.

Paxton’s Runoff Track Record in Amarillo

This will mark Paxton’s third appearance on Amarillo ballots in a statewide runoff. In 2014, during his first bid for attorney general, Paxton trailed state Rep. Dan Branch in Potter County (41.98%–31.90%) but edged him out in Randall County (39.95%–33.10%).

In the runoff, Paxton flipped Potter County decisively, winning 62.28% to 37.72%, and expanded his lead in Randall County to 67.21%–32.79%.

Paxton showed even more strength in 2022 while defending his seat against Land Commissioner George P. Bush. He led both counties in the first round — 51.26% in Potter and 47.04% in Randall — before cruising in the runoff with 72.2% in Potter and 71.8% in Randall.

Cornyn’s Limited Runoff History

Cornyn, who has represented Texas in the Senate since 2003, has not faced a runoff since his first campaign for attorney general back in 1998. That year, he trailed Barry Williamson in the primary in both Potter (44.29%–29.99%) and Randall counties (40.84%–34.45%).

Like Paxton would later do, Cornyn flipped both counties in the runoff, winning Potter 66.34%–33.66% and Randall 60.45%–39.55%.

The longtime incumbent has deep roots in Texas politics, having previously served as a Texas Supreme Court justice and attorney general himself. But his last runoff was nearly three decades ago, making direct comparisons to today’s more polarized environment tricky.

What the Numbers Suggest for May 26

If history is any guide, Paxton has shown an ability to consolidate conservative support in the Panhandle once the field narrows to two candidates. His 2014 comeback in Potter County and dominant 2022 performances point to strong grassroots appeal among Republican voters in the region.

Cornyn enters the runoff with a clear lead in both counties from March. That first-round advantage, combined with his long record of winning tough races, positions him favorably. However, the jump from a 10- to 19-point lead in March to a potential 60-40 or stronger split in the runoff is not guaranteed.

Turnout will likely play a major role. Runoffs traditionally see lower participation, often favoring the candidate with the more motivated base. Paxton’s consistent ability to boost his numbers between rounds in Amarillo suggests he could close the gap, particularly if anti-incumbent sentiment energizes his supporters.

Still, Cornyn’s 1998 rebound shows that established figures with broad name recognition can recover ground quickly once the choice is binary.

Voters in the Panhandle have shown they are willing to shift support in runoffs. On May 26, those shifts could prove decisive once again.