The Tuesday Out-of-State Primary Affecting West Texans

On Tuesday, voters will cast ballots in an important election that will affect all of West Texas and those travelling west on Interstate 40.

The only thing is that election won’t be taking place in Texas.

The election in question is the Republican primary for New Mexico governor, an office which has grown with importance over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic for travelers along Interstate 40. Because West Texas’ relationship with communities in eastern New Mexico is undeniable, Texas’ neighbors to the west have always been important, but COVID-19 shutdowns and mask mandates have further affected the state and the relationship Texans have with the state when travelling through or doing business to the west.

Much of the state’s restrictive COVID policy was and has been helmed by Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, the state’s first-term Democratic governor, who is seeking a second term in office. Under Lujan Grisham’s watch, the state’s restrictive mask mandate was only lifted in February of this year, affecting both New Mexicans and those doing business in the state.

Lujan Grisham has also been hit with a handful of scandals and controversies during her time in office, but nonetheless, she is seeking another term in office. As of Monday, Politico currently rates the state as a “Lean Democrat” race, meaning that Democrats have a slight edge going into election season, but that the race is far from safe in the party’s hands.

With that in mind, Tuesday’s primary to decide who will face Lujan Grisham in November is an important one to watch to see what the road will look like over the coming months as Lujan Grisham hopes to earn another term in office despite her controversies and COVID lockdowns in 2020 and 2021.

At the moment, the front runner in the primary appears to be meteorologist Mark Ronchetti, a well-known face in the Albuquerque area who previously was the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020, running a surprisingly close race against Democrat Ben Ray Lujan despite 2020 being a Democrat-favorable year in New Mexico.

Ronchetti currently leads the field, according to a poll released last month, with 45 percent of the vote. Ronchetti’s runner-up in the poll was State Rep. Rebecca Dow of Truth or Consequences. A major theme differentiating the two top-polling candidates in the primary is the focus of their negative campaigning. While both have criticized each other and Grisham, Ronchetti’s messaging has been mostly directed at Grisham’s handling of issues such as COVID while Dow’s messaging has been more focused on asserting herself as more pro-Trump than Ronchetti.

While Dow is polling in second place, it is a distant second-place with only 17% in a recent vote. Other contenders include Sandoval County commissioner Jay Block, Right to Life of New Mexico executive director Ethel Maharg, and former Bernalillo GOP chair Gregory Zanetti. No candidates other than Ronchetti or Dow were polling in double digits as of a poll from last month.

Ronchetti also appears to be doing better than Dow in general election polling. In a poll from Survey USA, Grisham was beating Ronchetti by only 4 points, while Grisham was 12 points ahead of Dow.

According to Predictit, a political prediction market, Ronchetti is the favorite to win tomorrow’s primary election, while, as of writing, there is about a 60% chance of the general election being won by a Democrat. So, while the most likely outcome appears to be another term for Grisham, that outcome is by no means certain.